Monday, May 22, 2006

Apple Could See iPod Downside cites a recent Piper Jaffray report that states "Apple Computer (AAPL) could see slight downside to analysts' fiscal third-quarter iPod unit estimates."

Gene Munster at Piper Jaffray wrote, "While it is way too early to make a call on June quarter iPod results, we have analyzed the first month of NPD data (April) for the quarter and found that it suggests iPod units of around 8 million." According to the article, "the Street is currently looking for 8.6 million iPods in the June quarter; Munster's model anticipates 8.25 million."

Munster came at his new forecast "by looking at the typical percentage of iPods shipped in past June quarters and measuring the sequential and year-over-year growth rates. He then averaged the two estimates from his sequential and year-over-year growth numbers and came up with 8.9 million iPods for the quarter. In the previous quarters, however, Munster has found that extrapolation of the first month data typically overshot the actual reported iPod unit number for the quarter, so he removed 10% from the initial unit estimate to arrive at 8 million."

Munster added, "Recent chatter in various articles and web postings about trends with component suppliers have suggested that iPod units were slower than expected in April, so we do not think investors will be surprised by this early datapoint. As a result of 'Grads and Dads' buying we believe May and June iPod sales will likely be better than what was seen in April."