Tablet PCs — Is it There Yet?

I don't profess to know much about tablet PCs. I've seen a couple, but honestly there aren't too many out in the wild in my neck of the woods. That doesn't mean they're not popular, it's just that I wouldn't know.

Former IDC analyst Roger Kay, who is now at his own shop, Endpoint Technologies Associates, writes a very lengthy discourse on the tablet PC market. Essentially, he thinks it has been way over-hyped by Microsoft and will never be more than a niche market.

There is too much information and data points for my little brain to digest in Kay's market analysis, but I did find one of his concluding statements interesting:

Meanwhile, alternative form factors have arisen to handle some of the demand that might potentially have gone to tablets, form factors such as Blackberries and converged phones. Mobility is clearly important, and yet there are a number of possible ways of getting a good mobile computing experience.

Could there be a tablet killer lurking in our midst? Will it be a next generation smartphone or converged mobile device? After drooling over the latest Palm and Windows Mobile devices, and experiencing the potential of the Sony PSP firsthand, I would have to say yes. Then again, I'm biased...