Thursday, November 10, 2005

In-Stat: TD-SCDMA In China – Part II

David Chamberlain at In-Stat writes in the firm's weekly information alert about his thoughts on China's proposed 3G standard TD-SCDMA. Chamberlain points out that "most of the major US and European infrastructure companies are in some kind of TD-SCDMA joint venture with Chinese companies. For example, Nokia and Putian announced their JV a couple weeks ago."

Although there are naysayers, Chamberlain thinks the:

idea of a homegrown 3G standard isn't so far-fetched when considering the size of the Chinese market. In-Stat's most recent estimates find there will be 166 million NEW wireless subscribers in China in the coming five years. That number is greater than the combined subscriber figures for Cingular Wireless, Verizon Wireless and most of T-Mobile today. With a market that size, economies of scale are certainly achievable, especially considering the lower cost of intellectual property in base stations, networks and handsets.
Chamberlain concludes with:
One final thought on the development of any new airlink technology: CDMA was a ghastly and embarrassing failure in its earliest days. Today, though, it's considered at least equal if not superior to other systems. Take a look at W-CDMA for another example of a slow start for a fine system. It's hard work to make something like TD-SCDMA work. It could take a while. I wouldn't write it off yet.
It also doesn't hurt to have a potential market of more than 600 million mobile phone users by 2009 as In-Stat predicts...