'Slvr' of Daylight or Doubt at Motorola?

A couple of articles on Motorola's (MOT) prospects leading into their quarterly earnings at the close of market today. TheStreet.com writes some analysts believe Motorola will announce "blowout sales numbers, thanks in part to the early success of the ultra-thin Slvr phone." According to an estimate by RBC Capital analyst Mark Sue, "Motorola sold about 5 million Slvr phones in the first quarter. If those numbers are true, that would more than double the sales performance of Razr's debut quarter more than two years ago."

Motorola's overall handset sales volume for the first quarter was expected to be close to 40 million units. However, "Charter Equity Research analyst Ed Snyder puts the number as high as 41 million. And RBC's Sue raised his projection to 44 million."

Motorola did have its slip ups in Q1, such as the likewarm launch of the PEBL and the delay of the Q. Plus it will face increased competition from the other handset manufacturers inclding Sony Ericsson and its Walkman music phones.

Ovum analyst Roger Entner said, "Razr and Slvr are gorgeous devices, but Sony Ericsson's W600 is a good design and a much better music device. Motorola is reaching a saturation level in the U.S.. Now, they have to go overseas to replicate that success. The key will be to see how strong the new devices are in Europe."

Forbes.com paints a less rosy picture for Motorola and wonders if the company can move beyond its RAZR-induced magic. Forrester Analyst Charles Golvin said, "Some of the bloom is already off that rose, and Motorola's answer is not in these other new models. It isn’t reasonable to expect another hit like the Razr to follow the Razr. What's important is having a rich, segmented set of offerings--and to realize even those won't be as wildly successful."

Regarding new products like the SLVR, PEBL and Q, Avi Greengart at Current Analysis said, "They're damned if they do launch a bunch of new phones, and they're damned if they don't."

On the late-to-market Q, Greengart added, "Motorola's done a horrible job of delivering on promises of getting products to market quickly, and without bugs. It's just bad when they get out-Razr'd by someone else. This way is [still] better than it was for them a few years ago. Back then they didn’t have any hot products."