For cellphones' future, look to PCs' past

International Herald Tribune writes that "the best way to see into the cellphone's future is to look at the personal computer." Just as "the rise of broadband speeds for Internet access had unexpected consequences in the PC world, prompting companies like AOL to abandon their so-called walled garden approach to online communications and open up to nonmembers. The same is likely to happen to mobile operators and their branded "portal" sites, analysts say."

And many thing that the transition to 3G and beyond will pave the way for increased data usage.

One problem "is that HSDPA is just getting started." Neil Mawston at Strategy Analytics predicted that "by the end of 2006, third-generation cellphones would be 23 percent of handset sales in Western Europe, while HSDPA-capable phones would be 1 percent."

The article points out that "while current 3G phones download information faster than PC dial-up modems, they are not as speedy as PC broadband connections. An HSDPA-compatible phone would, in theory, be five times as fast as a regular 3G phone and as fast or faster than most home broadband connections." Mawston said that "by 2010, 55 percent of mobile phones sold in Western Europe would have HSDPA."